Everyday Killings in Mexico Fall Over a Third During Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Figures

The typical number of daily homicides each month in the country has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by recent administrative figures. Nevertheless, security experts have cautioned that murder data might not signal better countrywide security.

Marked Decline in Per-Day Figures

There was an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November as opposed to roughly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in September. This information was shared by the director of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we’ve had in these past months is remarkably significant,” the President remarked, explaining that in November the least figure of murders were registered for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Intense cartel infighting, combined with the administration's heavily militarised campaigns to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a murder rate more than four times greater than the US. From that point, murders have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has credited her national security strategy for an apparently sharper reduction in homicides this year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state stated: “There is a strategy, there is tracking of the plan, and there is specific tracking locality by locality in some cases. The plan works. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Enhanced cooperation between government agencies.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Concerns

However, public safety experts cautioned that focusing solely on homicide data to paint a picture of pacification was misleading. This is particularly true in light of the increase in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be excellent information if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and think: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the identical period the previous year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not reliable for estimating the situation of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the will to properly recognize and categorize remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of daily homicides was similarly an issue because it may obscure periods when there were especially high numbers of killings.

“Relying on the per-day average makes high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the government can cite the success of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were arrested between last October and this past November for serious crimes, per official figures. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s highly politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

However in spite of these measures, Mexico remains beset by high bloodshed, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-driven bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of youth took to the streets in the capital and throughout the nation to express their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The government frames [data] in a manner to build a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, socially it’s extremely debatable,” the analyst concluded.